1 Modelling accuracy

The current modelling is not fully multi-modal and the consultation contains assertions based on the 2001 MMS report, in turn based on older data.

There is thus no up to date systematic analysis against identified objectives and problems, as set out in Webtag, and no up to date consideration of other solutions.

This particularly unfortunate since the assumptions on traffic growth used in 2001 have proved to be incorrect and there is good local data which shows traffic falling for at least part of the AoI.

There is no walking or cycling in the demand model, this conceals the real impact of locating the new development in the planned locations and serving them by the proposed road scheme.

The public transport forecasts are not robustly validated and thus mode choice and the impacts of the scheme are again not well represented. This means the road traffic predictions will not be robust.

In particular the mode split predicted by the model for areas where it is currently measured, such as central Manchester and surrounding areas including Stockport, is not shown for the modelled base year or future years. “

Professor Wenban-Smith